Es uno de los países más expuestos a desastre de origen natural en el mundo. Pese a ello aún no tenemos un plan financiero que nos permita estar mejor preparados e incluso ahorrar recursos.
Que seamos un ‘país de catástrofes’ no debiera sorprender. De hecho, somos el miembro de la OCDE «más expuesto a desastres de origen natural», según dice el informe «Hacia un Chile resiliente frente a desastres» del Consejo Nacional de Innovación para el Desarrollo. El estudio además descarta un cambio de tendencia. Las catástrofes seguirán ocurriendo y continuarán impactando a nivel social, y también económico.
Para entender la envergadura del gasto, el mismo análisis estimó que «en promedio, cada año entre 1980 y 2011, Chile registró pérdidas cercanas al 1,2% de su PIB debido a desastres de origen natural».
La situación más compleja se produjo con el fatídico 27F, terremoto y tsunami que llevaron a pérdidas correspondientes al 18% del PIB nacional (estimación calculada en base a datos 2010).
En 2012, la OCDE daba a Chile como uno de los países con el nivel más alto de daños en catástrofes en relación al PIB durante los últimos 72 años. Su protagonismos se repite más de una vez.
Pero al hablar de desastres, no sólo estamos considerando la emergencia en sí, también hay un antes y un después que requiere financiamiento. El profesor de la Universidad de Chile y miembro del Programa de Reducción de Riesgos y Desastres (CITRID), Jaime Campos, explica las «dimensiones de la catástrofe». Cuatro etapas que «tienen que estar financiadas y contempladas por el Estado».
Las dos primeras comienzan antes del desastre. Son la » prevención y la preparación»; es decir, reunir «la información científica para identificar las amenazas latentes en cada región» y proporcionar los recursos para estructurar una respuesta eficiente.
La tercera se refiere al «manejo de la contingencia», y la última es la recuperación, que se divide en dos etapas : «Una centrada en la continuidad de la operación, de la vida cotidiana; la vuelta a la normalidad lo antes posible». La otra se enfoca en el impacto en cuanto a pérdida de bienes. Se trata de establecer » mecanismos para recuperar los bienes (casas, terrenos, maquinaria, etc.), lo que implica un proceso más largo y más burocrático».
Sólo en el manejo de la emergencia, en 2015 se destinaron casi 196.000 millones de pesos. Ese año se gastaron más de 28 mil millones de pesos en incendios forestales, mientras que los aluviones significaron 71 mil millones y las erupciones volcánicas otros cinco mil millones.
El monto total gastado en emergencias disminuyó en 2016, pero asciende constantemente desde el año 2009. Sin embargo en ese año también hubo grandes gastos. Nuevamente los incendios forestales se llevaron más de 14 mil millones de pesos, en tanto las emergencias marítimas de Marea Roja costaron casi 10 mil millones de pesos al país.
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El monto anterior fue sacado del llamado Fondo de Emergencia, recursos que destina el Ministerio del Interior cuando la capacidad de respuesta a nivel regional se ve sobrepasada. Es un monto «paralelo a los fondos sectoriales de los ministerios», señala el jefe del Centro de Alerta Temprana de la ONEMI, Miguel Ortiz.
Cubre «todo lo que no es absorbido, todo lo adicional» y, por tanto, «no tiene límites». Esto es, es un «fondo a libre disposición», del que «no se proyecta un gasto anual», sino que la suma se conoce a final de año, dice Ortiz.
En términos prácticos, este dinero sale de una glosa del presupuesto de Interior que es ‘excedible’; es decir, se puede aumentar a través de financiamiento propio de la nación administrado por Hacienda, según explican desde el Ministerio.
El experto en emergencias Michel de L’Herbe compara este Fondo con una caja chica, «que no está mal que exista», pero el problema es que «no tiene límites, que en sí misma representa varias veces el presupuesto institucional» de Onemi, inferior a 14.000 millones de pesos en 2017.
Este monto alto es una «señal alarmante» para de L’Herbe. Primero, porque el fondo está «sujeto a menores restricciones que un presupuesto institucional, el que requiere de otros mecanismos de control». Segundo, porque muestra «que los presupuestos institucionales (de la ONEMI) no están siendo los adecuados». Y tercero, porque ratifica una falta de análisis tras la emergencia, «que establezca procesos de lecciones aprendidas».
«Aquí desbordarse ha pasado a ser parte del uso y costumbre», critica de L’Herbe, quien arroja dos líneas de trabajo principales para reducir el gasto en emergencia: analizar el pasado para «establecer medidas de mitigación, preparación y prevención» e incrementar el presupuesto de Onemi «para administrar el dinero de manera anticipada», señala. Lo último permitiría, por ejemplo, establecer acuerdos previos que eviten adquirir insumos y logística durante la emergencia, «que puede ser más caro».
El resultado, dice de L’Herbe, ahorraría recursos y mejoraría la toma de decisiones «para tener un país más preparado», ya que (recuerden) las catástrofes no van a desaparecer.
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